The Kansas City Chiefs travel to Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Raymond James Stadium in Week 4 (Hurricane Ian notwithstanding). Both teams are coming off defeats in Week 3 and looking to bounce back in a big way this week. Here are our Kansas City Chiefs Week 4 predictions as they take on the Buccaneers.
In their Week 3 defeats, both clubs’ offenses faltered. Needless to say, both the Chiefs and the Buccaneers want to return to their winning ways in Week 4. It’ll be an interesting matchup because, since 2018, the Patrick Mahomes-Tom Brady rivalry has frequently produced pyrotechnics on the field. Some say this may also potentially be the final time these two meet on the pitch. Whether or not that’s true, however, this should be quite an entertaining affair.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Chiefs are -2.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay, and the two teams have a point total of 45.5. By all indications, this will be a tightly contested game, though it won’t be very high-scoring.
With that in mind, here are our four bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 4 game against the Buccaneers.
Silence the noise. pic.twitter.com/r7FAhuF3uU
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 28, 2022
4. Chiefs will sack Tom Brady thrice
Despite losing to the Colts last week, the Chiefs had a solid pass rush that made life difficult for Matt Ryan. Nick Bolton had two big sacks, while Carlos Dunlap, Frank Clark, and L’Jarius Sneed each had one. All of those guys will be targeting Tom Brady in Week 4.
Brady, for his part, isn’t new to getting sacked. He has been sacked twice a game so far this season on average, including getting wrapped up three times last week by the Packers. He’ll face a Chiefs defense that is averaging 3.3 sacks per contest in 2022, so it stands to reason Brady will hit the dirt about that many times again this week.
3. Chiefs secondary will struggle against Brady-Evans
The Chiefs will face a Buccaneers side that should have a much superior receiving corps compared to Week 3. That will allow Brady to have maybe his best passing game of the season. Conversely, this will be a big challenge for the Chiefs, especially their secondary.
One guy to watch, of course, is Chiefs WR Mike Evans. He missed the Packers game due to a suspension, but he will be back in play against Kansas City. Expect him to be Tom Brady’s primary target on SNF, especially after how Evans had Brady’s back two weeks ago against the Saints.
That Brady-Evans connection should produce at least one TD, and the Chiefs surely hope that would be the ceiling already. Kansas City will try to hold Brady to under 250 passing yards, but that’ll be extremely difficult. Ditto against Evans, who will likely go over 80+ receiving yards in Week 4.
2. Chiefs special teams will deliver this time
Look no further than the Kansas City Chiefs’ humiliating Week 3 defeat to the Indianapolis Colts to see why special teams are so important.
The Chiefs’ special teams squad had one of their worst days maybe ever. They had a botched field goal, a missed extra point, a muffed punt, and a very strangely executed and ill-timed fake FG that failed badly. They also had a kick returner who just fell down mid-return. All of those contributed to the 20-17 loss against an opponent they should have easily beaten, at least on paper.
Kicker Matt Ammendola, in particular, was terrible in Week 3. He was 0 for 1 on extra points and 1 for 2 on field goals. The Chiefs simply couldn’t trust him down the stretch, which resulted in that weird fake FG try.
Yes, by default, much of the burden falls squarely on the shoulders of special teams coordinator Dave Toub. However, Chiefs supporters should keep in mind that Toub is still one of the top special teams coordinators in the game. Every coach has off days, and he had a helluva bad one last week. That likely won’t happen again, so expect the Chiefs special teams to deliver against the Bucs.
1. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes rebounds with 100+ passer rating game
In a 20-17 loss against the Colts, Patrick Mahomes completed 20-of-35 passes for 262 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
He was able to move the ball efficiently for the majority of the game, but the offense couldn’t manage to put up many scores. The elite quarterback struggled through the air and also didn’t do much on the run, gaining only 26 yards. He clearly has week-to-week consistency issues moving forward.
Having said that, it’s not smart to bet against Mahomes, who surely wants to rebound in a big way. And doing it against Brady on the SNF stage would be the best way to do so.
With Evans back among his receiving corps, Mahomes should be hungry to redeem himself in Week 4. He likely won’t throw any more INTs as well — at least for this game. Mahomes should throw for 280+ yards and have at least two passing TDs against Tampa Bay and finish with a 100+ passer rating.