What up everyone! Let’s dive into it.
Let me first introduce myself, my name is Chris and on Draftking I go by quietbow. I consider myself a semi-pro DFS player especially when it comes to NFL. I have been playing DFS for 4+ years and a FFWC qualifier. I’ve won a handful of GPP’s over the years and feel I bring my best advice to single entry/3-max players. My slate breakdown will be geared towards GPP’s and my playstyle which ranged from 3-6 LU’s each week in the main slate.
(note this article is posted mid-week. Injuries/inactive could change things. Focusing on DraftKing’s main “Sunday slate” noon, 3 pm games CST. You won’t see TNF, SNF, MNF, plays)
Week – 4 – Recap: Pretty crazy slate, it was one of those slates where you think you know what’s gonna happen then the opposite does. With so many injuries I’m sure a lot of you where tinkering till lock. Chubb, Goodwin, Winston broke it open. Their ownership was around 0.63% – 3%. It’s a perfect example of anything that can happen and no player should be overlooked regardless of matchup. I personally survived and profited over $1k. My one lineup that hit outta 7 was built more in line with obvious/chalk plays. I plugged in Ekler, CMC, Gallman with a Wison to Dissy stack which cashed well in GPP’s.
Week 5 usually is when we start seeing a good separation between your average dfs players and the pros. Most have probably blown there bankroll by now. Bye weeks begins to roll in, better primetime games take a lot of the big names off the slate. You better know your stuff from here on out, hopefully, that’s why your here, let’s gain an edge and roll. Personally I’ve had some of my biggest wins on week 5 over the last few years, this one should be no different.
WEEK 5 – NFL – DFS
Let’s win some $$
Overview: I’m going to focus on my three quarterback plays as a more under-owned high upside approach this week. L. Jackson and Watson are your top two plays if you’re paying up. Not sure I’ll be going there this week but not much analysis you’ll need on them, they’re both in good spots.
My top 3:
A.Rodgers – ($6k) – This price is to good to pass up. Dallas D has played against the following so far (Eli, Keenam, Rosen, Bridgewater) Rodgers has finally settled in the new offense and should torch the Dallas.D. Hopefully, this play stays under the radar all.week. Great stack too w/ his RB/WR’s
J.Winston – ($6.2k) It pains me so much to recommend him but we can’t ignore the facts. The Saints run one of the worse secondary’s in the NFL with P.J. William’s + overrated M. Claibourn. Week 1 2018 this game was a big shoot out. Rinse. Repeat. Insert Winston and his narrow target distribution to stack with (Goilday, Evans) = $ $. Teddy keeps the Saints in the game keeping the Bucs passing all day. Book it.
K.Cousins- ($5.1k) Cousins week is here. You’re first thought my be…what!? He hardly throws the ball. While yes this is a concern but there is chatter and frustration amongst the Vikes to unleash. NYG is a cake matchup and if they can put up some points on the flip side. Buy low with Cousins and his weapons, they come out slinging in this one.
I have my eyes on:
M. Ryan – ($5.9k) Playing the Texans sub par D. Ryan has put together a solid season. Likely trailing in the game fire up Ryan + Julio and don’t look back.
K. Murray– ($6.3k) Two horrible defense squaring off usually creates a shootout and fantasy points. High pace of play puts Murray and his weapons in play, stack with DJ/Kirk or Larry
P. Rivers – ($5.8k) At home playing Denver this week. Chubb is out for the season and Minshew carved them up last week. Narrow target distribution to pair him with Allen or Gordon/Ekler depending on which one starts.
2% Stacks with upside: (high risk)
G. Minshew – ($5.3k) #merica. Ben watching him since week 1. We can expect a solid outing against Carolina subpar secondary. It also stacks well with DJ. Chark/Fournette
A.Dalton ($5.7k) No one is gonna play Dalton after his Monday night meltdown, but we have to take notice because he is playing Arizona. He’s a great stack to pair with Tate and Eifert this week with Peterson likely on Boyd.
S.Darnold ($5.4k) Don’t forget how well the Jets offense looked earlier in the year. Keep an eye out if he plays and is over the mono. Pairs well with Robby Anderson/Crowder/LevBell.
Overview: I’m personally not seeing a ton of value on running back this week. You have four top RB’s in play this week. (CMC, Kamara, Cook, Zeke) pick your poison here. You will wanna grab one on your lineup or jam in two if some value opens up later in the week. I’m not gonna break them down in this article, all four are good picks.
My top plays outside the top 4 Rb’s:
D.Johnson: ($7.5k) – The Bengals are one of my favorite teams to pick on with Rb’s each week. Averaging 5-6 receptions and 12+ touches each week puts DJ in a smash spot here. Arizona likely to be ahead in this game look for them to pound DJ down there gut all day. Great stack with Murray or a bring back on a Dalton line up.
J.Connor: ($6.2k) KC, CLE all had success against Baltimore’s stout D on the ground. Connor should be no different this week as Pittsburgh won’t be able to move the ball through the air, we should see a heavy volume day for Connor on the ground and receptions.
L.Fournette: ($6.4k) 29 touches last week against Denver has him on my radar. We could see the same this week as they rely on him over Minshew. Carolina’s LB core does worry me a hair especially Luke K. Regardless, the volume is there and reception upside.
D.Freeman : ($5.3k) Houston’s run D took a hit losing Clowney to trade. Ranking in the bottom. 14 touches and pass game volume plus the matchup has me going here. Expecting a bit of a back and forth game Freeman should be involved in all aspects.
A.Jones: ($5.9k) With William’s likely out due to concussion protocol, the arrow is pointed for up Jones. The volume he will receive in both the passing and running games puts him in a great spot in this potential shootout. At his price, it’s great too, also a great stack with Rodgers.
Some lower-priced guys that will see some volume:
P. Lindsey ($4.9k) Nice matchup against the depleted Chargers D. Denver will move the ball through Lindsey this week.
R.Jones (4.6k) – 6th on the missed tackles list per touch of all running backs. Averaging about 16 touches per game Tampa Bay is giving most touches to Jones over Barber. In a potential shoot out he’s on my radar.
Overview: Jones and Nuk are your clear top two this week. There a decent amount of injuries that raise the stock on a few guys this week. Nothing wrong with playing the cheap WR’s this week and going up at RB.
J.Jones ($7.7k) – Jones is going against Bradly Robby this weekend who ranks as the 50th best corner in the NFL. Highest over/under this week. Julio will get his.
D. Hopkins ($7.8k) Has a date with Trufant this weekend but Nuk is matchup proof. Watson will feed him all game in a likely shootout.
K.Allen: ($7.3k) Huge Volume Play! all there Wrs are hurt. No where else for Rivers to go in a bounce back spot this week. I could see a 15+ target game here.
C.Godwin/M.Evans: ($6.9k/$7.1k) Either or, I prefer Godwin this week in a smash spot against PJ Williams, any week I can pick on NO secondary i’m all in. Yes you can play both on the same lineup.
M.Thomas: ($6.6k) His price is so low this week and he is still getting the volume as if Brees was there.
A.Thielen: ($6.7k) Calling out his QB to throw more plus Diggs has been m.i.a. opens up a huge volume load for the great white shark. Playing against NYG you saw what Godwin did, Thielen’s turn.
M.V.Scantling: ($5.6k) No Adam’s this week promotes MVS to WR1/2 with Arod as QB plus, against Dallas’s banged up safeties.
Larry Fitzgerald: ($6k) No Kirk and Bryd this week. Fire up ol reliable in a smash spot against the pismal defense that the Bengals roll out each week.
C.Ridley/M.Sanu: ($4.9k/$4.2k) Cant fit Julio? Feel free to take a stab on these two. Both are seeing volume and could have a big game any day especially against Houston. As you can see in this article I’m high on ATL/HOU.
W.Fuller: ($4.5k) Draws an amazing matchup against Isaiah Oliver #91 CB in the NFL. Big week for Fuller here to shine and show us that 2TD upside. Stack him with Watson/Nuk
A.Tate:($3.5k) J.Ross on IR, Dalton’s new favorite target is in a great spot this weekend against ARI. He is a boardline must play. This is good chalk to eat this week. Similar to the Dissley play last week.
K.Johnson: ($3.5k) Kirk/Bryd out, its KJ’s time to step up in this high pass volume offence.
Z.Ertz:($6k) Top overall play against the Jets, PHI receivers are still pretty banged up funneling things to Ertz. I’d expect his ownership to be low as most will be paying up at other spots.
E. Engram:($5.8k) Great spot to attack Minnesota this week with Rhodes and company taking out the WR’s. Jones should look his way alot.
Waller ($5k) For his price and the volume he is getting, put him firmly in play this weekend. Oakland should be trailing and gameflow is in his favor.
A.Hooper($4.5k) Producing week after week, we have to take notice in the potential shootout. Ryan will look his way a lot especially on the redzone.
T.Eifert($3.7k) Well, he is playing the Cardinals so he is on our radar. Though I do prefer to go to Tate for 200$ cheaper. Nothing wrong with Eifert this week. Every TE against Arizona has put up 20+ fantasy points so far this season.
N.Fant: ($2.7k) decent volume for the price. I like this punt if you just want to save some $$ and use it elsewhere.
Patriots: ($4.3k) yeah Colt McCoy is starting this is a scary fade, the Patriots could put up 30 fantasy points. Think of it like playing a 4.3k player. Who would you rather have. I think the Pat’s off the highest floor/ceiling combo at that price.
Titans: ($3.5k) Josh Allen’s status is up in the air. If Barkley starts all systems point to the Titans to have a good game defensively.
Punt: (great slate to pay down for D)
Buccaneers: ($2.2k) Great pass rush going against Bridgewater. Averaging 11 points per game fantasy wise.
Steelers ($2.1k) Lead the league in sacks. They will get to Jackson a bit this game.
Redskins ($1.8k) This is a screw it play to get extra studs in your lineup. Hopefully you can pull off a couple points against Brady.