Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Divisional Game versus the Buffalo Bills diving for a pylon he had a 5% chance of reaching.
You probably saw that insane stat that was making the rounds on social media this week from ESPN Stats & Info:
“The Chiefs are 3-1 in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes when their in-game win probability dips below 5%. The rest of the NFL is 1-38 since 2018.”
Since 2018. Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in Kansas City, there have been countless records, stats and nuggets of historical context thrown out there. Seemingly, every week, the dynamic offense of Andy Reid has placed his 26 year old phenom signal caller among the all-time greats. Sometimes, in a category all his own.
But this recent stat deserves a closer look. It needs to be put into perspective.
“… when their in-game win probability dips below 5%.”
The rest of the NFL is 1-38 in such scenarios which means any other team has a 2.6% chance of winning a game they have a 95% chance of losing. So… what IS a 5% chance? Happy you asked, I’ve got the time:
Patrick Mahomes celebrates putting the Chiefs on the scoreboard of the AFC Divisional Game against the Buffalo Bills.
An Olympic athlete has a 12.6% chance of winning a medal.
7% of students will score 1400-1600 (perfect score) on their SAT.
You have a 6.7% chance of dying on your birthday.
Americans on average have a 6% chance of becoming a millionaire.
6% of high school athletes will go on to play at the NCAA level.
An applicant has a 5% chance of being accepted into Harvard.
There’s a 3-5% chance your item will get lost in the mail.
5% of babies are born on their actual due date.
You have a 4% chance of winning a prize playing Powerball.
Now that you have a better understanding of what 5% really looks like, I will close by saying this…
Patrick Mahomes — apparently — when faced with a lose-lose scenario, will actually win 75% of the time.
