What up everyone! Let’s dive into it.
Let me first introduce myself, my name is Chris and on Draftkings/Fandual I go by quietbow. I consider myself a semi-pro DFS player especially when it comes to NFL. I have been playing DFS for 4+ years and just this last year I qualified for DK’s Fantasy Football World Championship. While I didn’t take home the cool 2 million, I was happy to hit my goal of finishing in the top 100 and beating a lot of the sharks all season long. (hopefully, get back there this year!) I’ve won a handful of GPP’s over the years and feel I bring my best advice to single entry/3-max players, which I am. My slate breakdown will be geared towards GPP’s and my playstyle which ranged from 3-6 LU’s each week in the main slate.
Let’s win some $$
WEEK 3 – NFL – DFS
(All my players listed will be for Draftkings, Single, 3 Entry Max, Tournament recommendations. That’s what I play. I do not play cash games, feel free to use them in cash if you want. Many players get confused by the whole GPP/Cash gameplay style, I’m more in the zone of let me make the best line up possible regardless of contest)
Overview of the Qb position this week, Mahomes and L. Jackson by far stand out as the two best options on the slate, while they will garnish most of the ownership this week (15% each) that is something that a lot of people will overthink and honestly you do not need to worry about your Qb’s ownership in GPP’s it’s usually very spread out anyway and how low owned they end up being may surprise you come Sunday. Don’t be the other 85% who don’t play Mahomes or Jackson. Every other Qb should come in between 5-10% on Sunday.
Mahomes – ($7.6k) – What more can I say about him other than lock him in a LU each week no matter what. Home opener, playing against BAL, which honestly may scare some people off this play but don’t let that fool you. Bal should be able to hang in this game keeping the Chiefs foot on the gas. With how explosive they are its a no brainer play. #Narrativestreet Pat celebrated his birthday this week and he celebrated by watching game film to prepare for BAL. We should be looking at another ceiling game for Mahomes with his RB’s banged up and the Ravens D missing Jimmy Smith. Playing at Arrowhead is a different animal and besides Kyler Murrey put up 300 on them, imagine what Mahomes can do. Last year Maholmes stat line against the Ravens. 53 passing attempts, 377 yards, 2TD, 1 INT.
Jackson – ($7k) Jackson is coming off another big week performance and walking into another one at One Arrowhead Drive. Ravens should be playing from behind for most or all of this game. Creating an amazing game flow for Lamar his rushing and passing upside should be on display this weekend. KC’s defense hasn’t been anything special this year yet and he should have his way against them. (pains me to type that as a Chiefs fan but this is DFS)
Dak – ($6.5k) Why does no one play Dak!! These first two weeks he’s been coming in around 5% in GPP’s. Dude’s been on fire this season. Playing in a contract year. New OC’s dialing up plays being ultra-aggressive. 7 TD’s 674 passing yards through the first 2 games against NYG and WAS cupcake matchups but look who is next..Miami. My one concern this week is negative game flow. MIA is a dumpster fire, could be looking at a lot of Zeke in the 2nd half but if there up 40 by then Dak has done his damage. I expect him to be a bit more popular this week than the first two.
Josh Allen – ($5.9k) At home against CIN who has some serious problems stopping the run and well, stopping opposing teams from scoring as well. This firmly puts Allen’s arm and legs in play this weekend. I really like this spot for him. He’s one of the few players with enough upside to get close to matching Mahomes/Jackson any week. D. Singletary looks to be out, F. Gore will start. Increasing the passing volume to Smokey and Co. (John Brown). Hard to pass on Allen this week.
I have my eyes on: Kyler Murray ($5.8k) I haven’t pulled this trigger on him yet this season, this may be the week that changes, love pairing him with Fitz and Kirk against CAR who by the way have trouble defending the deep ball plus there Cam-Less this weekend. J. Brissett ($5.2k) his O-Line is tremendous, but he has had two tough MU’s these first two weeks and pulled off 5 passing TD’s. Now he gets ATL at home on the turf.
Overview: Id assume most players will be paying up at running back this weekend and rightfully so. Look at the top – 6 (saquon, zeke, kamara, cook, ekler and cmc) and their matchups this week. We cant play them all so lets narrow it down. I’ll be fading or very lightly exposed to Kamara, I don’t like his volume situation and not sure it’s gonna get any better this week.
Saquon: ($9.2k) – While TB has been somewhat surprising in stopping the run this season, they did shut down CMC last week or was that Cam… Anyway, Saquon has had 2 back to back 100-yard game and now gets a QB switch to juice up that team. Great GPP this weekend, honestly he’s a lock for 20+ and passing game this week, id assume Jones leans on Saquon a bit this weekend.
CMC: ($8.7k) His ownership may be down this week after last week’s performance, great for us. One of the few players or only who legit can get 100 yards receiving and rushing in a single game. Going against ARI who plays 52% no-huddle, fast-paced, air raid offense. Will get Carolina on the field often, should be playing from behind. Game line ups well for CMC to have a big day with Cam out, they’ll need to lean on him a lot.
Zeke: (8.9k) I don’t need to get into much here. Play Zeke vs MIA at home. Play any RB against MIA all year, to be honest.
Mid Tier :
Dalvin Cook: (7.8k) full volume back, 20+ involved in the pass game. Been on fire last two weeks, played him both weeks as well, not gonna stop this week. Playing on the turf in Minnesota against the raiders. Ever heard of the Chief’s hangover? Well, Oak’s D is up this week. Fire up Cook with confidence.
Ekler: (7.2k) 287 yards and 4TD’s in two weeks, involved in the passing game, goal line, Jackson doesn’t eat into Ekler time as bad as most would have thought. That doesn’t change this week.
C. Carson:(5.9k) Home, involved in the passing game. Looking into a heavy volume workload coming up with D. Bree’s out. I would expect SEA to lean on Carson big time this game as they should be leading. There is some concerns that Penny splits some touches with Carson but Carson is the lead guy with 15+ each week and passing game work.
M. Mack (5.8k) I thought this play would be more sneaky like I said with Brissett above I’ve been watching Mack aswell. His first two games (not the best matchups) he still was productive with 20+ carries each week. Atlanta is one of our favorite teams to play RB’s against putting Mack firmly in play this week.
M. Ingram (5.7k) I’m personally not very high on Ingram, this week while others probably are against KC. The Chiefs run D has been looking great last two weeks. Holding down Fournette and Jacobs. Plus BAL I feel will be passing this game from behind. With Gus Edwards and Hill eating into time of Ingram I’m not sold this week. Regardless it’s a good play and no problem going here if he fits on your roster.
Some lower-priced guys that will see some volume:
P. Lindsey (4.3k) – GB’s D has been better this year, don’t hate this move it you need the value
F. Gore (4.4k) – Singletary might be out Sunday paving the way for Gore, good value here. It’s not a sexy play but it’s the points that matter if hes getting the full work load.
D. Thompson (3k) – This play depends on Williams and Shady, both banged up but if one is out fire up Thompson at stone cold minimum.
Overview: I really like the WR’s this week around the 5k price tag. Most roster construction will be paying up at RB this week flooding the lower tiers. This isnt a bad thing where as the higher priced guys havnt always produced but a contrainian way to go this week would be to pay up at the position.
D. Adam’s (7.6k) – Adam’s has been alittle quite the first two weeks and rightfully so. Playing against CHI and MIN. That changes this week. We all watched what OAK was able to do against this Broncos secondary on MNF. I’d assume the general public is scared of his matchup against Harris but I feel its beatable. Now the Broncos square off against one of the best receivers, especially from a PPR point of view from last year. Adam’s should shine this week and nothing better than having Rodgers throwing you the ball while playing in Lambo.
Antonio Brown (7.1k) – #1 thing to watch will be to make sure he plays this week pending his off field antics. Brown played 32% of the snaps against Miami and received 27% of the target shares in that time. Imagine what could happen if he got more playing time. Brady was pretty much forcing the ball his way. That shouldn’t change this week against the Jets in a division game where the Pat’s are known to run up the score. Pat’s should jump out early in this one and keep things rolling. With the Jets on there 3rd string QB it will create alot of opportunity for Brown.
Others to consider: Hopkins, Godwin, Golladay above 6k.
Diggs (6k) His price is extremely low for the talent you are getting . With the Vikings at home and playing against OAK he needs to on your radar. You watched what the Chiefs did against that secondary and Diggs has the talent and upside to do some damage here.
John Brown (5.5k) Every week smokey has produced. Hes emerged as Allen’s #1 target and that should continue this week. CIN is nothing special in the secondary. Hes one of my favorite stacks with Allen this week.
John Ross (5.1k) Bill’s top CB should be shadowing Boyd all game leaving room for Ross to shine. Hes been getting the volume we want in Zach Taylors offence and is a great bring back on a Allen + Brown line up. Cin is expected to play from behind and what better way to catch up than to feed Ross.
Larry Fitzgerald (5.1k) Old man Fitz has been a main target and saftey blanket for Murray the first two games. Look for him to be targeted often and is a redzone threat.
Christian Kirk (5k) Same goes for Kirk as above for Fitz. I really like playing both on the same lineup with Murray. So much volume is there , it’s hard to pass up. ARI running 52% no huddle puts there WR core in play.
Marquise Brown (5.9k) with Andrews possibly not playing and the Chiefs run D stepping up it will create a funnel situation to Brown. Hollywood has emerged as Jacksons favorite target and expect him to attack these weak Chiefs CB’s in catch up mode.
Sammy Watkins (6.8k) D. Robinson (5.2k) M. Hardman (5k). All three Chiefs wideouts are in play this week with Mahomes at the helm. This will be a area to attack the Ravens with the Chiefs running game crippled. Any are fine it will just depend how your roster construction plays out. My choice among the 3 is Hardman, Sammy, Robinson in that order. But you want exposer to all 3 across your lineups this week.
Emmanual Sanders (4.8k) Talk about going overlooked. His talent level is very high and producing great fantasy numbers the first two week. He’s really the only guy Flacco can rely on. His speed, route running , big play ability put him in play against GB especially in garbage time late in the game.
Will Fuller (4.9k) I’m waiting for the big 2 TD game from fuller and this may be the week. Hes a boom or bust play. Going against LAC this week it might just be the week against the Chargers injury ritten secondary. Watson is no joke it’s just a matter of if hes gonna have time to throw against this Chargers pass rush.
M. Valdes-Scantling (4.3k) at 6’4 and just a freak athlete there nothing wrong with playing Rodgers secondary target this week.
Preston William’s (3.7k) Miami’s lone talented WR. He shined in the preseason and first two week has seen some decent volume. Rosen might be looking his way often while playing from behind this week.
Nelson Agholor (3.6k) The Eagles WR injuries have piled up creating a narrow target distribution this week. Wentz has chemistry with Agholor I’d lean here over Whiteside.
Travis Kelce (7.1k) the best TE in the game. Mahomes will be looking to Kelce often this week. If you are paying up this is where you go. He’s like playing at WR1 for 7.1k.
Zach Ertz (5.7k) If your gonna drop off Kelce this week look no further than Ertz. With Slay taking out Phillys WR1 and the injuries they have to there WR core expect Wentz to look Ertz’s way. He’s hes one of the best in high volume situations.
E. Engram (5.2k) Same concept as Ertz. Wr core is banged up big time in New York. What better player is there other than Saquon for your young QB to rely on his first start. Tampa bay’s secondary is weak and I could see alot of targets going his way plus redzone targets. 6-8 targets should be in line this week for Engram.
M. Andrews (4.6k) H. Hurst (3.1k) Andrew’s has been Lamara go to guy the first two weeks. Keep an eye on his injury. If he doesnt suit up in this shootout you can pivot to Hurst with just as much confidence.
J. Witten (3.7k) TD’s in his first two weeks after coming out of retirement. While the targets arnt really there. Dak is looking his way in the Redzone. Playing against MIA with Gallup out Dak will look his way often this week.
T. J. Hockenson (3.5k) Week 1 stud who we where high on flopped week 2. The masses will skip over him this week. I wont. Phillys secondary is one of my favorites to pick on. This 1st round pick talent is there. Fire him up this week with confidence.
G. Olsen (3.7k) I. Thomas (2.6k) Carolina should be trailing and with Cam out, there back up QB will need a safety blanket. Look for Olsen to fill that role but there is injury concern. If hes out plug in Thomas as a punt who I played a few times last year.
Patrios (3.8k) I’d assume Dallas or the Patriots will be the highest owned this weekend. Let’s not overthink this. With Bill calling the shots on defence against a 3rd string QB will be a nightmare for the Jets. Lock in the Pat’s and move on.
49’ers (3.2k) while there secondary is not great you have a great pass rush to create turnovers and big plays. At home against Mason Rudoulf. Sign me up
Chiefs (2.5k) If you really like your lineup and want to go low I dont mind the Chiefs. There a different animal at home and could make some havoc in the backfield. Your looking for turnovers/sacks. This is a punt play and you will need to accept the fact the Ravens will score.