What up everyone! Let’s dive into it.
Let me first introduce myself, my name is Chris and on Draftkings/Fandual I go by quietbow. I consider myself a semi-pro DFS player especially when it comes to NFL. I have been playing DFS for 4+ years and an FFWC qualifier. I’ve won a handful of GPP’s over the years and feel I bring my best advice to single entry/3-max players, like myself. My slate breakdown will be geared towards GPP’s and my playstyle which ranged from 3-6 LU’s each week in the main slate.
Week – 3 – Recap: Had my first losing week of the season. I had a lot of the right pieces but only one share of K. Allen and zero Evan’s. I took a stand and faded Kamara and Angular which ended up not helping. Got a little too cute with some sub 2% plays as well. That’s the GPP lifestyle some weeks you do lose and some you win. Variance my friends.
WEEK 4 – NFL – DFS
Let’s win some $$
Overview: Russel Wilson should be the highest owned easily and rightfully so. Everyone else ownership will be spread out. Mahomes, Jackson will.come in under-owned as usual.
High Tier :
Mahomes – ($7.5k) – By far the best QB on the slate talent-wise, floor is 300 yards and 2 TD’s and the safest play. He is 100$ less this week than last. Detroit’s CB Slay is hurt, there DT William’s is also injured. Not a good week for Detroit to be banged up with the Chiefs rolling in hot. Vegas has this game with the highest implied total. Fire up Mahomes with confidence this week paired with two or three of his pass-catchers. Crazy thing is he will come in low owned again on DraftKings.
Russel Wilson – ($6.1k) Coming off a monster game last week, 2 rushing TD’s pushed him to QB1. Nothing’s gonna change this year. Who is playing ARI? Oh, the Seahawks! At his price, you have to play Russ this week. His rushing upside is a plus and look for a big day from Russ especially since ARI can keep up, creating a great game flow. Arizona’s secondary is still weak and should be no challenge for Russ.
Lamar Jackson- ($6.9k) This is probably my favorite GPP play this week. The masses will forget about Jackson after his subpar outing at Arrowhead and will look to the guys listed above or pay down. Jackson is too talented, to be written off this week. He draws CLE at home, they have three key defensive players with injuries going into the week. Setting up nicely for Jackson. Somethings are telling me they are going to take their anger out on the dog pound after losing to KC. Lamar is gonna school the Browns this week.
I have my eyes on:
J. Brissett – 5.4k – 300-yard outing and 2 TDs last week. Each week he producing. O Line play is great and draws Oakland this week at home. Keep an eye on T.Y. injury status.
D. Jones – 5.3k – Boy did Danny “dimes” look great on Sunday. He also looked great in the preseason. Playing Washington this week at home, look for a repeat. Washington made Tribisky look good. Saquon is out, the Giants will rely on Jones’s arm and legs to carry the team Sunday.
2% Long shots:
G. Minshew – (5.2k) #merica. This kid looks sharp. Solid passer and nice WR’s to pair with on the cheap.
C. Keenum – (4.9k) Cant ignore the fact that the Giants have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Also a nice cheap stack with Thompson/McLaurin. I think we might see a bit of a shootout this weekend in NY.
Overview: Running back is pretty straightforward this week. Not a ton of value and not the most talented players on the main slate. I think you are looking at Ekler and CMC as the most popular plays. We will see as the week progresses if any more plays open up.
McCaffrey: ($8.8k) – Houston’s defense is ranked in the bottom category’s this year. They’re giving up the 2nd highest yards to running backs and 31st in run defense per PFF. With Cam out expect Allen to look his way often. Norv Turner has no problem using CMC exclusively in the offensive scheme.
Ekler: ($8k) Miami is on a whole new type of bad, something we have never seen. As usual, we are gonna pick on their defense. With injuries on the Chargers offense, Ekler will be heavily involved in all three aspects of game flow. Receiving, rushing and goalline work. This may be the last week for Ekler with Gordon coming back soon LAC sends him out with a monster performance.
Dalvin Cook: ($8.3k) Draws the toughest matchup among the top tier while facing Chicago’s stout D. He will be the least owned of the top backs making a great GPP play. His volume is there week in and week out. I don’t mind going here if you wanna get a little contrarian. It’s just a matter if he can break through this matchup.
Mid Tier :
Todd Gurley : ($7k) This is a bit of a risky play. With the spits, the rams have had at Rb this season. With that said there is some coach speak with McVay talking about getting Gurley going more with more volume. Is this the week we finally see full-on Gurley hanging 40 points. He will come in very low owned against a poor TB defense. Tread lightly but it’s a great GPP play with upside.
D. Johnson: ($6.8k) With a TD in each of his last games will need to keep an eye on DJ. Expected to be trailing, set up nicely for him this game. We all saw what Kamara did against the overrated Seattle’s front seven. The volume is there if you feel you need to go this route. Its possible Arizona could change the game plan and lean heavily on the running game against SEA if they can get a lead.
M.Ingram:(6.6k) I expect Baltimore to run down the gut of this Browns defense with a vengeance after that Chiefs loss. Also, like pairing him with Jackson on the same LU to capture all the upside. Playing while ahead most of this game they will go back to ground and pound putting Ingram firmly in play. 14, 13, 16 attempts the first three weeks, should see the same this week.
M. Mack ($6.1k) Mack played through his injuries last week setting himself up for this week. Expect a 20+ game behind a great O line and a sub-par defense in OAK.
D. Henry ($6.3k) With 19, 15, 17 attempts through the first 3 weeks Henry gets a great matchup against Atlanta, one of our favorite teams to pick on with Rb’s. The game plan should revolve around Henry with Marriota not impressing this season. Atlanta is a little banged up on D as well. While on the road the turf should work in his favor. He also has 1 TD in each of his last three games.
Some lower-priced guys that will see some volume:
D. Williams/ D. Thompson ($4.7k/4.3k) – These plays hang on the injury status of William’s and McCoy. If one or both are out you can go here. I would expect William’s to pick up the bulk and Thompson to be used on 3rd downs and passing plays. Thompson will be less owned of the two.
C. Thompson (4.5k) – His pass-catching ability is what draws me here, Redskins should be trailing most of this game and AP is not a threat. Great garbage time play.
W. Gallman (4.5k) – Saqoun is out 4-6 weeks. Looking at a 15+ attempt back at a low price in a great matchup with his rookie QB. Fair to say he will be popular this week on DraftKings.
Overview: Same as last week the mid tier should garnish most of the ownership. Most will play Allen up top lowering Julio/Beckham/Nuk. There is some value but you will want some lower guys with upside this week and paying up at WR could be the way to go again. If I had to rank them in order. Allen. Nuk. Julio. OBJ.
K.Allen ($7.6k) – Coming off a monster game last week we should see the same against the high school defense of Miami. Averaging 8-13 targets per game Rivers go to guy is firmly in play. Small scare of a blowout could limit his upside but he could have 40 points by then.
D. Hopkins ($7.7k) This is a nice pivot off Allen if the game is a blowout turning into a Ekler game. The best WR drawn a nice matchup against Carolina’s susceptible secondary which can get beat deep. Carolina should shut down the run game forcing Watson to throw a ton. His best target should have a field day with 10+ targets.
C. Kupp: ($6.5k) probably has the best chemistry with his QB than any other receiver. Averaging double digit targets each game and 22.8 fantasy points per game. He is in smash spot against TB this week. The Buccaneers have a sub par secondary that Kupp should eat alive. Fire him up with confidence
T. Lockett: ($6.3k) Wilson’s #1 target has a dream matchup against the Cardinals. Patrick Peterson should be back next week leaving one more week to take advantage of this spot. Game flow is in his favor with how fast Arizona plays. Should be one of the most popular play this weekend and for good reason. 14 and 12 targets last two game and we should see that again this week. Lockett needs to be a main player you target this week.
Sammy Watkins, M. Hardman, D. Robinson: ($6.7k, $5.1k, $5.2k) Boy of boy do we have a smash spot for all three Chiefs receivers. Playing in the dome there speed is gonna light up Detroit who is a hair banged up on the defensive front and secondary giving Mahomes plenty of time to pick them apart. I think you pick two based on your lineup. I prefer Hardman, Watkins, then D-Rob. All three wont garnish much ownership which is nuts. Last time Mahomes played in a dome was on college putting up 6 td’s and 500+ yards. Get yourself a piece of that Sunday.
K. Golladay: ($5.9k) We like to pick on the Chiefs weak corners. If we expect KC to change 40+ Detroit is gonna have to catch up somehow. Look no further than Staffords guy in Golladay. Averaging 10 targets a game I expect Detroit to move the chain’s with him. Also a red zone nightmare for the Chiefs with his size.
S. Shepherd: ($5.8k) With Saqoun out 4-6 week Jones will rely heavily on Shepherd. Draws a fantastic funnel spot against the Redskins this week. Honestly there is no where for Jones to throw the ball other than to Shepherd or Engram. These are the situations you want to capitalize on. Recover 9 targets last week hanging 100/1. I could see the same again or more after another weeks practice with Jones.
Larry Fitzgerald: ($5.6) Can’t forget about ol reliable. Sea vs Ari is expected to shoot out. I’m very high on Seattle this week which means we cant ignore Arizona’s side of the ball. Murrey will need to keep pace with Fitz or Kirk. Your looking at a good spot for both wideouts.
Dont forget about:
Marquees Brown: ($5.8k) After two stellar weeks, week 3 he was non existent. Secondary in Cleveland is nothing to ride home about with some injuries piling up. Expect Jackson to come out firing this week and to look at Brown often. That’s probably on his mind as he should of been looking there against the Chiefs last week.
Terry McLaurin: ($4.5k) Look at this target share: 8, 9, 7 plus a Td in every game so far. At this price he has to be on your radar. Hes emerging as a number 1 receiver in Washington. Giants can’t defend anyone and McLaurin should eat in this potential shootout. Save some salary and go here. I am.
W. Fuller: ($4.5k) Maybe the big game is this week. Carolina has trouble against the deep ball and that’s fuller’s specialty. The talent is there just gotta capture the correct week to skyrocket you up the leaderboards. Averaging 6-7 targets a game it’s a matter of time before he breaks one.
P. Williams: ($3.9k) 12 targets last week. Playing from behind more than likely. Sets up well for Williams this week. Plus LAC secondary has been hit hard with injuries.
H. Renfrow: ($3.8k) The Raiders released Ryan Grant creating an opportunity for Renfrow. Wanna take a stab on slow owned guy who should get some volume. Here’s your guy.
Overview: We are looking at a Dissly chalk week I’d assume at 3.7k. You will be faced with 2 decisions. 1 ride the Dissly wave (which is good chalk) or pay up or down to be contrainian and pray he flops. Or go double Tight using your flex.
T. Kelce:($7.2k) Always in play, every week. Just the small problem is his price. You will need a 150, 2TD type day for it to payoff. While that’s very realistic against Detroit and withwhat we expect Mahomes to do. This is a great leverage off Dissly but you need a big game. Regardless you know what Zues can do week in and week out.
E. Engram:($5.7k) If your gonna drop off Kelce look ar Engram. He’s in the same situation as Shepherd listed above. Jones will look to his safety net plus there is redzone upside. 14, 8, 8, targets thru 3 weeks and Washington has no answer on defense to stop him.
G. Olsen ($4.2k) Houston was a TE shiv last year. Look for Allen to continue his connection with Olsen again this week. With 7-9 targets going his way. Dont worry about his back injury.
W. Dissly($3.7k) Look at the fantasy points for TE’s vs Arizona the last 3 weeks 28.1 Hockenson. 28.2 Andrew’s. 25.5 Olsen. Week 4?? Dissly’s turn. 5 and 7 targets the last two weeks, how Russ doesn’t look his way constantly would blow my mind. He should be open all game. Now there is always a reason to fade a play like this, its football anything can happen but tread lightly with this one. You can get different elsewhere in your lineup. Take the free square and play Dissly this week and move on.
D.Harris: ($2.5k) If you wanna get contrainian this week and pay down at TE look to Harris. With Nijoku out Harris will fill the role. If anyone is fading Dissly there probably gonna pay up. Harris is stone cold minimum but not in the greatest matchup. If you wanna punt to save some $$ look here. All you need is like 6 points anything more is gravy.
Chargers: ($4.2k) Any defence playing Miami is always in play. They have a great pass rush. They are expenive and I could see Miami putting up a fight here with Rosen.
Rams: ($3.5k) My cousin Jeremy talked me into the Rams this week and the more I look at it, it’s my favorite play. Rams should break havoc on Winston. Aaron Donald and company have been quite all year but this is an eruption spot for them at home.
Bears: ($3.4k) Projected to be low scoring the Vikes draw a tough Matchup against one of the best D’s in the league.
Mid Tier + Low Tier:
Ravens: ($3.2k) Baker will be no match for the Ravens at home. They should give him a hard time all day. There gonna be playing with a chip after losing to KC.
Broncos:($2.9k) Denver is a different animal at home. Expect Chubb and Miller to give Minshew a tough time even tho he has been playing well.
Bills: ($2.6k) This is my sneaky D play of the week. I feel that D has been playing extremely well and will give Brady fits in Buffalo. Bill’s are 3-0 and that place will be bumping. If they can bring the pressure they could pull this one off.
Carolina: ($2.3k) Cant ignore how many sacks Houston is giving up each game. Great play here for some points on the cheap.